Zoellick sounds caution over rebound

    Barack Obama’s first trip to Asia as US president could almost have been designed to underline the dramatic shift of economic power from west to east that has been accelerated by the global financial crisis.
    Mr Obama leaves economically depressed Washington for ①a region recovering so fast that Robert Zoellick，the World Bank president，thought it necessary yesterday to warn its central banks to start thinking about how to choke off asset bubbles.
    Mr Zoellick said on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Singapore：“Traditionally the central banks in east Asia will follow the [US] Federal Reserve because if they ②raise interest rates [independently]，that will draw capital and appreciate their currencies.
    “In the US and Europe，because things are still relatively weak，I don’t see any likely inflationary effects at this stage. In east Asia，if you start to get a strong rebound in growth and you’ve got a lot of liquidity，there is a question of whether you start to face asset bubbles，”he said.
    Mr Zoellick drew attention to Australia’s decision to raise interest rates last week for the second time in a month，noting that its economy was“very linked”to east Asia，but said central banks should consider administrative action to restrict credit as well as the timing of interest rate rises.
    The World Bank president’s warning followed a dramatic ③about-face on Asia’s growth prospects by the International Monetary Fund，which was clearly taken by surprise by the region’s strong performance in the past six months.
    In a big upgrade，the IMF more than doubled its forecast for Asian economic growth this year to 2.8 per cent and raised its prediction for 2010 to 5.8 per cent. The World Bank upped the ante further last week，forecasting growth of 7.8 per cent for east Asia and the Pacific next year.
    That reading was buttressed yesterday by fresh figures from Japan，South Korea and China，by far the world’s best performing big economy，which was already on course for economic growth of at least 8 per cent this year.
    Beijing said industrial output rose in October at the fastest pace since March，while retail sales and fixed investment also rose sharply. In South Korea，unemployment fell from 3.6 per cent in September to 3.4 per cent in October，a nine-month low，as transport and telecommunications companies and banks boosted recruitment.
    Record profits at the conglomerates that dominate South Korea’s economy are bringing rosy forecasts. Yoon Jeung-hyun，the finance minister，has said the economy might expand this year，reversing an earlier prediction. Some private sector forecasters are even more bullish. ING，the Dutch bank，thinks gross domestic product will rise 5.3 per cent next year，up from its forecast of 0.1 per cent this year.
    Even in Japan，a growth ④laggard，core machinery orders，excluding volatile purchases，grew twice as fast as expected in September，said the cabinet office.
    The Japanese numbers attracted rare praise from the US. Tim Geithner，the Treasury secretary，said in Tokyo that attempts to boost domestic demand by the new government of Yukio Hatoyama were“very encouraging”for the world economy.
    Mr Obama is expected to reiterate that message，⑤in line with the agreement by the Group of 20 economies that countries running big trade surpluses need to boost domestic consumption to reduce reliance on exports to the west，while countries running big deficits need to save more and consume less.

    译文梗概

    佐利克：东亚小心泡沫

    巴拉克·奥巴马(BarackObama)就任美国总统以来的首次亚洲之行，几乎就是为了彰显全球经济权力从西方向东方的戏剧性转移——此轮全球金融危机加速了转移的步伐。
    奥巴马将从经济不景气的华盛顿出发，前往一个复苏极其迅速的地区——其速度之快，使得世界银行(WorldBank)行长罗伯特·佐利克(RobertZoellick)认为，有必要向一些央行提出警告，让它们开始考虑如何抑制资产泡沫的问题。
    佐利克表示：“东亚的银行传统上会追随美联储，因为如果它们(独自)提高利率，将会吸引资本流入，从而导致其本币升值。”他说：“在美国和欧洲，由于经济仍相对疲弱，当前阶段我没有看到任何潜在的通胀效应。在东亚，如果经济增长开始强劲复苏，又加上拥有大量流动性，那么你就存在是否已经开始面临资产泡沫这个问题。”
    佐利克发出上述警告之前，国际货币基金组织(IMF)大幅改变了其对亚洲增长前景的预测。亚洲地区过去6个月的强劲表现，显然令IMF感到吃惊。
    IMF将今年亚洲经济增长预期上调了逾一倍，至2.8%，并将明年的预期调高至5.8%。世界银行上周则更进一步，预测东亚及太平洋地区明年的经济增长率将达到7.8%。
    来自日本、韩国和中国的最新经济数据为上述预测提供了支撑。中国是迄今全球表现最好的大型经济体——正朝着今年经济增长至少8%的目标挺进。
    预计奥巴马会重申以下信息：拥有巨额贸易顺差的国家需要推动国内消费，以减轻对西方的依赖；而拥有巨额贸易逆差的国家则需要增加储蓄，减少消费。

（文章来源：FT中文网）

    点评

    ①a region recovering so fast that结构中，recovering是现在分词，相当于一个定语从句，a region that/which is recovering…；so+adj.+that结构，意为“如此…以至于…”用来引出后面的结果状语从句。assetbubbles意为“资产泡沫”。
    ②raise和appreciate都能用来表示“增加，增值”的意思，表示提高利率、成本、薪金等通常用raise，而“升值货币”则用appreciate更为地道，其名词形式是appreciation，反义词是depreciation，意为贬值。
    ③about-face，主要用于军事语境中，a turn made so as to face the opposite direction，即向后转，在这里意为a complete change of opinion or policy，即观点的大幅转变。
    ④laggard，“落后的”，其动词形式是lag，可用来表示经济增长“滞后”，与上一段中的expand词义相反。
    ⑤in line with为“与…一致”的意思，相当于in accordance with。