ASIAN BANKS WARY OF PROPERTY BUBBLES BUILDING-UP

    Residential property prices are rising across much of Asia，prompting fears of a real estate bubble. Apartments are selling for staggering prices，and central banks and finance ministries have begunto ①rein in property-related stimulus measures.
    Yet it seems only yesterday that prices were falling，giving rise to fears of a ②hard landing for property investors ③that could have destroyed huge amounts of personal wealth and delayed the recovery.
    In Hong Kong，for example，prices for apartments costing more than HK$10m(US$1.3m）fell 6.2 per cent in the third quarter of last year，according to Savills Research， which feared that luxury prices might fall by a further 40-45 per cent by the end of this year.
    As it turn sout，luxury apartment prices in Hong Kong are now 30 per cent above their low point in the fourth quarter of 2008，with prices up 14 per cent just between the second and third quarter this year in favoured neighbourhoods. Similarly in Singapore，prices for private homesrose 15.8 per cent in the third quarter from the second，the first such rise in more than a year.In China，prices are up 37 per cent year-on-year.
  So is Asia in the grip of a bubble or just enjoying a healthy reaction to excessive gloom and doom of the end of last year？ No one really knows， but some governments and central banks are taking limited pre-emptive action just in case.
    In Singapore， the government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer mortgage payments on uncompleted developments， and hinted at land sales to increase supply. Tharman Shanmugaratnam， Singapore’s finance minister，told the Financial Times that these measures appeared to be having some effect， but it was not clear whether further action was needed. “It is worth watching very carefully，”hesaid.
    South Korea’s financial regulator has tightened rules on borrowing，and in Hong Kong the central bank has warned that low interest rates are not sustainable. It increased the required down-payment on homes costing more than HK$20m by a third， to 40 per cent.
    However， no country other than Australia—gripped by a China-fuelled commodity boom—has taken the step of raising benchmark interest rates to cool demand. That reluctance reflects fears that higher rates could choke off domestic recovery and push up Asian currencies against the US dollar， harming trade prospects.
    It also suggests central banks are not yet sufficiently sure that an asset price bubble is forming.
    Jim Rogers， the Singapore-based international investor，said there were clearly hot spots but no general region-wide bubble.
    “I would not think about buying in Hong Kong or Shanghai，but it is not so widespread that all of Asia is in some sort of ④property bubble，” Mr Rogers told the FT. “It may happen... but I don’t think it’s happening now.”
    Some observers go further，asserting that the bubble is an illusion. Matt Nacard， Tuck Yin Soong and Eva Lee， property analysts at Macquarie Research， say price growth is  likely to slow significantly next year because it has been largely a product of the ⑤stimulus measures introduced to fight off recession.
    Frederic Neumann， senior Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong，says policymakers will have to raise rates eventually from the extraordinarily low levels reached during the global financial crisis， but are right to hold their fire for now. “If left unaddressed， the current monetary set-up in Asia will ultimately blow abubble of mind-boggling size， but so far the train has not left the station，” MrNeumannsays.

    译文梗概

    亚洲银行警惕楼市泡沫

    亚洲许多地方住宅价格正在上涨，引发人们对楼市泡沫的担忧。有些地方的公寓已卖到令人错愕的价位，各国央行和财政部已开始收紧与房地产相关的刺激措施。
    然而，房地产价格仿佛昨天还在下降，这使人担心楼市投资者可能面临硬着陆，导致巨额个人财富蒸发，并推迟经济复苏。
    例如，根据第一太平戴维斯研究部(SavillsResearch)的数据，香港1000万港币(合130万美元)以上公寓的价格在去年第三季度曾下跌6.2%。该机构当时担心，豪宅楼价到今年底可能再下跌40%至45%。
    结果却是，香港豪华公寓现在的价格比2008年末季的低位高出30%，在一些热门地段，仅今年第三季度的价格水平就比第二季度高出14%。类似的情况也在新加坡出现，该国第三季度私人住宅的价格比第二季度高出15.8%，这是一年多来的首次上涨。在中国，楼市价格同比上涨37%。
    那么，亚洲究竟是已经笼罩在泡沫之下，还是对去年末过度悲观的健康反应？没有人真正知道答案，但一些国家的政府和央行正采取有限度的预防行动，以免局面失控。
    在新加坡，政府已叫停那些允许未完工楼盘的买家推迟按揭偿付的银行放贷方案，并暗示将出售更多土地以增加供应。
    不过，除澳大利亚(该国正在经历由中国需求推动的大宗商品繁荣)以外，该地区内迄今还没有一个国家为了抑制需求而采取提高基准利率的步骤。这种不情愿反映出官方的担心，即利率上调可能扼杀国内复苏，并推高亚洲货币对美元的汇率，从而损害本国的贸易前景。
    这种局面还表明，各国央行尚未充分确定资产价格泡沫正在形成。
    以新加坡为大本营的国际投资者吉姆·罗杰斯(JimRogers)表示，市场上有一些明显的热点，但不存在席卷整个亚洲的普遍泡沫。
    有些观察人士更进一步，称所谓的泡沫只是一个错觉。
    汇丰(HSBC)驻香港的亚太区高级经济学家范力民(FredericNeumann)表示，政策制定者最终将不得不上调利率，告别全球金融危机期间不寻常的低利率水平，但现在按兵不动是正确的。

（文章来源：FT中文网）

    点评

    ①rein相当于“control”，作名词时，意味“缰绳”，可引申为“控制”的意思，作动词时，意为“勒缰绳使(马)停步，驾驭，控制”，非常形象地表达了“收紧刺激措施”的含义。②hard landing，硬着陆，与之相对应的是soft landing，软着陆。③that could have destroyed huge amounts of personal wealth and delayed the recovery定语从句，先行词是hardlanding，couldhavedestroyed这一虚拟结构表示“过去本能够做某事却未做”，意在表明人们对这种潜在破坏的担忧。④property bubble即为房地产泡沫，还有real estate bubble，housing bubble等表达方式。⑤the stimulus measures introduced to fight off recession中的introducedtofightoffrecession为后置定语，相当于一个定语从句，即the stimulus measures that/which are introduced to fight off recession。