美国联邦储备委员会19日宣布，从4月起将月度资产购买规模从650亿美元缩减至550亿美元，同时调整有关联邦基金利率的前瞻指引。

    美联储当天在结束货币政策例会后发表声明说，1月以来的数据显示美国经济活动在寒冬季节有所放缓，这部分反映出不利天气的影响。美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会认为，美国整体经济的潜在力量足够支持就业市场持续改善。

    美联储决定，从4月起将长期国债的月度购买规模从350亿美元降至300亿美元，将抵押贷款支持证券的月度购买规模从300亿美元降至250亿美元。这样一来，美联储月度资产购买规模将从此前的650亿美元缩减至550亿美元。

    在继续削减月度购债规模的同时，美联储调整了有关短期利率走势的前瞻指引，去掉了之前使用的失业率6.5%的参考值。声明指出，在决定将目前接近于零的联邦基金利率(即商业银行间隔夜拆借利率)保持多长时间时，美联储将衡量一系列指标，包括劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和预期以及金融市场状况，以衡量经济在就业和通胀两大政策目标上已取得和有望取得的进展。　

    美联储预计，在未来结束资产购买计划之后，仍有必要把联邦基金利率接近于零的水平保持相当一段时间。美联储还指出，即使在通胀和就业两大指标接近政策目标的情况下，基于经济表现，一段时间内仍有必要把联邦基金利率保持在美联储所认为的长期正常水平以下。

    本次会议是美联储主席耶伦就任后主持的第一次货币政策例会。耶伦在会后的记者会上指出，有关利率前瞻指引的改变并不代表美联储政策意图的改变，而是美联储顺应经济形势变化所做的调整。

    美联储政策声明全文（英文版）

    美联储2014年3月19日政策声明全文（英文版）

    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that growth in economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate, however, remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment continued to advance, while the recovery in the housing sector remained slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

    Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will continue to improve gradually, moving toward those the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

    The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in April, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

    The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

    To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

    When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

    With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.

    Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

    Voting against the action was Narayana Kocherlakota, who supported the sixth paragraph, but believed the fifth paragraph weakens the credibility of the Committee's commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target from below and fosters policy uncertainty that hinders economic activity.

    美联储政策声明全文（中文版）

    美联储2014年3月19日政策声明全文（中文版）

    自FOMC 1月份政策制定会议以来所收到的信息表明，冬季各月中经济活动的增长速度有所放缓，部分反映了不利的天气状况。就业市场的各项指标表现不一，但整体上来看显示出进一步的改善；但失业率仍旧维持在较高水平。家庭支出和企业固定投资继续增长，但住房部门的复苏进程则仍旧缓慢。财政政策正在限制经济增长，但这种限制的程度正在减轻。通胀一直都低于FOMC的长期目标，但较长期通胀前景一直都保持稳定。

    FOMC正依据其法定使命来寻求培育最大程度上的就业和物价稳定性。FOMC预计，通过合适的政策融通性措施，经济活动将以适度的步伐扩张，失业率将朝着FOMC判定为符合其双重使命的水平逐步下降。FOMC认为，经济前景和就业市场所面临的风险已几乎达到平衡。 FOMC还认识到，持续低于2%目标水平的通胀率可能给经济表现带来风险，未来将仔细监控通胀的形势发展，以寻找中期内通胀率将朝着FOMC目标方向运动的证据。

    FOMC目前判断，更广泛经济中拥有足够的潜在力量，可为就业市场状况正在进行中的改善提供支持。鉴于自FOMC引入现有资产购买计划以来朝着最大就业方向所取得的累计进展以及到就业市场状况前景的改善，FOMC决定进一步缓慢而有节奏地缩减资产购买计划的规 模。

    从4月份开始，FOMC将以每个月250亿美元的规模扩大其机构抵押贷款支持债券的持有量，而不是此前的每个月300亿美元；同时将以每个月300亿美元的规模扩大其长期美国国债的持有量，而不是此前的每个月350亿美元。

    FOMC将维持现有的政策，将来自于所持机构债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的本金付款再投资到机构抵押贷款支持债券中去，以及在国债发售交易中对即将到期的美国国债进行展期。FOMC现已规模庞大且仍将增加的长期债券持有量应该会对长期利率造成下行压力，对抵押贷款市场形成支撑，并有助于让更广泛的金融状况变得更具融通性，从而应可促进更加强劲的经济复苏进程，有助于确保通胀率随着时间的推移而达到最符合FOMC双重使命的水平。

    FOMC将密切监控未来几个月中有关经济和金融形势发展的信息。FOMC将继续实施其购买美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持债券的计划，并在合适的情况下动用其他政策工具，直到就业市场前景能在物价稳定的前提下实现重大改善时为止。

    如果未来的信息可对FOMC有关就业市场状况正在改善、且通胀正朝着符合其长期目标的方向运动的预期形成广泛支持，则FOMC很可能将在未来的政策会议上进一步采取缓慢而有节奏的措施以削减资产购买计划的规模。但是，资产购买计划并未处在一条预先设定好的 道路上，FOMC有关其规模的决定仍将取决于FOMC对就业市场及通胀前景的预期，以及对这种购买计划很可能将带来的效果及其成本的评估。

    为了支持朝着最大就业和物价稳定性的方向的继续进展，FOMC今天重申此前的观点，即货币政策的高度融通性立场仍旧是合适的。为了判定需在多长时间里保持目前为0到0.25%目标区间的联邦基金利率，FOMC将对有关其最大就业和2%通胀目标的进展——包括已实现 进展和预计将有的进展——进行评估。这种评估将把一系列广泛的信息考虑在内，包括有关就业市场状况的指标、通胀压力和通胀预期指标、以及有关金融发展的读数等。

    基于对这些因素的评估，FOMC继续预计，在资产购买计划终结以后的很长时间里，继续将联邦基金利率维持在当前区间很可能仍将合适；尤其是，如果预期通胀率继续低于FOMC的2%长期目标，并假设长期通胀预期仍很稳定的情况下就更是如此。

    当FOMC决定开始取消政策融通性措施时，将会采取平衡的举措，这种举措将符合其最大就业和保持2%通胀率的长期目标。FOMC目前预计，即使是在就业和通胀率均达到接近符合其双重使命的水平以后，经济状况可能仍将在一段时间里有理由令FOMC把目标联邦基金利率维持在较低水平，这一水平低于FOMC视为正常的长期水平。

    在失业率已经接近达到6.5%的形势下，FOMC已对其前瞻指导进行了更新。FOMC前瞻指导的变动，并不意味着FOMC在最近以来的政策声明中所阐释的政策意图发生了任何改变。

    在此次政策制定会议上投票支持FOMC货币政策行动的委员有：主席珍妮特-耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)、副主席威廉-杜德利(William C. Dudley)、理查德-费舍尔(Richard W. Fisher)、桑德拉-皮亚纳托(Sandra Pianalto)、查尔斯-普罗索(Charles I. Plosser)、杰罗 姆-鲍威尔(Jerome H. Powell)、杰莱米-斯坦因(eremy C. Stein)和丹尼尔-塔鲁洛(Daniel K. Tarullo)。

    纳拉亚拉-柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)投票反对FOMC的货币政策行动，他对本声明的第六段表示支持，但认为第五段将削弱FOMC有关让通胀率从较低水平重返2%目标之承诺的可信度，并培育出将对经济活动形成阻碍的政策不确定性。

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